Risk is to the Upside: Oil Market Outlook for 1Q25, 2Q25 and Beyond

Analyst and economist forecasts of $71/B WTI oil prices in 2025 and $59/B by 2027 are in sync with latest IEA estimates of world oil demand. Expectations for low interest rates + low oil prices are like a tax cut for the global economy. Ex energy stocks, the stock market expects to soar. But OPEC may have better data. Its oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain much larger than the IEA and oil prices much below $68/B are not sustainable for long for US shale producers and even for all OPEC+ members. And then tariffs and sanctions? Oil prices are volatile: the 3Q24 high was $85/B, the low was $65/B --- the range was $20/B!

Wide swings in oil prices frequently recurring heavily impact upcoming quarterly changes in energy sector earnings, investment performance, and inflation. The focus of the Monthly Oil Price Road Map is to provide ongoing updates of an evolving environment driving changes in oil prices in the current quarter, the next quarter, and beyond after comprehensive analysis, regularly updated with the latest data.